This summer Europe was hit by extreme heat setting record high temperatures in several countries. Due to climate change, we may very well experience even higher temperatures in the future. And worst of all Europe is not the only continent to be affected. In northern sub-Saharan Africa they also feel the consequences. Heat stress is already a problem here, and it does not seem to get any better in the future. According to Professor Klaus Butterbach-Bahl and Dr. Jaber Rahimi from Land-CRAFT – Center for Landscape Research in Sustainable Agricultural Futures – a part of the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University it may ultimately affect livestock production and smallholder livelihoods.

“Milk production in northern sub-Saharan Africa is increasingly under stress due to climate change. This threatens livelihoods and food security in the region. Previously we have looked into how much livestock in this area of Africa is affected by heat stress, and what we found was already serious. Frequency and length of heat stress periods will jeopardize livestock production in the future,” Klaus Butterbach-Bahl says.

Milk is important nutrition

Recently a move towards more plant-based diets have gained popularity in some parts of the world, however in north sub-Saharan Africa, people do not have the same diversity of nutrients to choose from, which is why animal proteins, specifically dairy products, is of great importance.

“In drylands of sub-Saharan Africa animal protein is very important as a source of nutrition, and milk in particular is important for the well-being and growth of children. In north sub-Saharan countries as in many other places globally pastoralist communities do not have the same resources as in high income countries to replace animal proteins with plant-based proteins. So a future with less or no milk or animal protein would be catastrophic,” Jaber Rahimi says.

Changes in climate will change regional feed availability

Current trends in feed availability indicates that with climate change woody coverage increases while grass cover decreases, but that overall feed availability decreases.

“To make better use of regional feed availability while maintaining or increasing milk production a shift in herd composition from grazers (cattle) to browsers (goats and camels) is needed. But such a shift requires planning, education, and not least finances,” says Jaber Rahimi.

Moreover, goats and camel are better adapted to heat stress and harsh environments with higher tolerance for drought and food scarcity, while still maintaining a significant production of milk and meat in all seasons.

Mixed herds will increase production and lower the climate impact

So, is this the end of cattle in northern sub-Saharan countries, will they all be replaced by camels and goats?

“No, our results are region dependent, but show that replacing about a quarter of the cattle with a mix of goats and camels allows to increase milk production while the need for water and feed decreases. Moreover, total greenhouse gas emissions due to dairy milk production will be lower too,” Klaus Butterbach-Bahl explains.

Help is needed

This is a long-term effort, and it is not something the farmers can do by themselves. They need education in how to care for goats and camels, they need financial help, as it is very expensive to buy new animals, and they need help setting up breeding programs especially for camels. So, it is a change that will not happen overnight, but it is a change of great importance, and according to Jaber Rahimi it is important that we start acting and preparing now, if we are to make it in time.

“This is not a quick fix, and aid organisations may help to allow pastoralists in these regions to adapt their livestock systems and to make livestock production in drylands of sub-Saharan Africa more climate resilient.” he says.